Jose We Can See

Even as the Washington Capitals have been the dominant team in the East this season and are in control of the race for the President's Trophy, one concern has always lingered: Do they have the goaltending to make a serious run at the Stanley Cup?

Well, there's something to be said for having the ability to simply outscore your opponents on an almost nightly basis. The Caps consistently have shown the ability to do just that, easily leading the league with 289 goals and a plus-80 differential. The next closest in those categories are Vancouver at 244 and Chicago at plus-52. But, at the end of the day, history shows that defense and goaltending can overcome scoring come springtime.

Those who have watched Jose Theodore on a nightly basis during his - and the team's - fantastic run that has seen Washington record at least a point in 26 of the last 29 games don't seem as concerned as the rest of the world, however. There's no question that Theo's tenure in D.C. got off to a rocky start 18 months ago with some bad goals allowed and generally inconsistent play, but on Wednesday night during another epic tilt against the Penguins, something was heard for the first time during his stint in Washington: the chant of "Theo! Theo!"

Unfortunately a goal from Jordan Staal soon followed to tie the game at 3, but after surrendering a pair of goals in the shootout, Theodore stonewalled Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz to allow the Alex's - Ovechkin and Semin - and surprise shooter Mike Knuble to rally and steal the win. For the night Theodore finished with 39 saves, many of the spectacular, game-saving variety. His performance was enough to earn the superstar-filled contest's second star, yet the most telling indication of where Theodore stands with his teammates came after the shootout game-winner. Instead of mobbing Knuble, the Caps sprinted off the bench to congratulate their netminder.

"He's playing with so much confidence right now," Caps defenseman Shaone Morrisonn said of Theodore after the Pittsburgh win, "and that allows us to play with confidence at both ends of the ice."

Added Bruce Boudreau, a man of few words when it comes to his goaltenders: "He's playing great."

Still not convinced? Then take a look at this. Theodore is 17-0-2 with a 2.42 GAA and a .927 save percentage since Jan. 13. He has won his last seven starts, recording a 1.95 GAA and .937 save percentage during that span, and his 19 consecutive appearances without a regulation loss is a club record.

In recent years the knock on Theo has been his lack of consistency. Remember, though, that this is a former Hart and Vezina winner, so he has shown an ability to perform at a high level over an extended period of time. More recently he has shown that in short spurts he can still be one of the best in the game. Suffice to say that 19 games without a regulation loss is more than a short spurt.

And supposing that Theodore does have a lapse in concentration on occasion, he has by far the league's best offense to help overcome that. Sounds very similar to the formula that made the Edmonton Oilers pretty successful in the late '80s, doesn't it?

Grant Fuhr fashioned a Hall of Fame career, one that prompted Wayne Gretzky to at one point call him the greatest goaltender of all time, by making the key save - not EVERY save. A look at Fuhr's numbers during the Oilers' cup years reveals the following: In Cup year number one, 1984, Fuhr was 30-10-4 with one shutout, a 3.91 GAA and a .883 save percentage. 1985 saw him go 26-8-7, 3.87, .884. In 1987 he was 22-13-3, no shutouts, 3.44 and .881. And finally, in 1988 - his best year - Fuhr was 40-24-9, 3.43 and .881 en route to capturing the Vezina Trophy.

Sure, that was a different era with more offense, smaller pads, etc. But a closer glance shows that the league's top GAAs during those years were 2.66, 2.66, 2.81 and 2.36, respectively. Fuhr didn't make EVERY save, but he did make the big saves - and that's exactly what Theodore has been doing now for several months. Of course, we are talking about one of hockey's all-time great dynasties when referring to the Gretzky- and Messier-led Oilers, but the Caps are in the midst of the type of dominant offensive season that characterized those clubs.

On top of that, the Caps' defense as a whole has tightened up in recent weeks, allowing three or fewer goals in seven of their last eight and eight of their last 10 outings. A big part of that has been the superb play of rookie call-up John Carlson, the hero of the U.S. Juniors’ gold medal victory, and the improved play of Mike Green in his own end. Morrisonn has really stepped up his physical play, which is something that has sometimes lacked among the team’s d-men in the past. He led the Caps with nine hits vs. Pittsburgh. Jeff Schultz is second in the league in plus-minus, and quietly has become one of the NHL's most dependable players in his own end, and Tom Poti continues to make positive contributions at both ends of the ice.

So, those who say the Caps are not built for a deep playoff run, might want to look a little closer. They've got the game's best offense, and it's not even close. The defense is coming together, and their goaltender seems to be driven by something greater than wins and losses.

In August Theodore's two-month old son died tragically, leaving the Caps' netminder understandably heartbroken. In a recent Washington Post interview the emotional Theodore spoke out for the first time about the situation and admitted that he struggled to focus early in the season and was unable to round into top form while playing sporadically behind red-hot Russian goaltender Semyon Varlamov. But an unfortunate injury to Varlamov thrust Theodore back into the spotlight, and the team's powerful offense allowed him the margin of error he needed to fine-tune his game. More playing time allowed him to focus more on the game and less on the tragedy.

The end result? Theodore is on top of his game, playing often enough to stay in the groove and motivated by the loss of his son. He has started a foundation called Saves for Kids to help raise money for the neonatal kids’ intensive care unit, where he spent so many difficult hours, at Children's National Medical Center in Washington. Every save, win and shutout means more money is going to help prevent others from experiencing the same heartbreak that he and his wife Stephanie Cloutier lived through.

Something special is happening in D.C. right now, and it's not about the Alex's, the ridiculous amount of goals being scored or Rockin' the Red. No, it's about a once-spectacular goaltender who was weathered personal and professional ups and downs to return to his all-star form.

Jose Theodore is the Capitals' playoff goaltender. Period.

A year ago that left doubts in the minds of fans and experts alike, but what a difference a 12 months can make. There 10-12 playoff-caliber teams – if not more – that would be thrilled to have someone playing at Theo's level in net heading into the postseason. The Caps' perceived weakness in reality is a strength at the moment, which may once and for all allow them to realize the dream that has eluded the franchise for the past 35 years.

Miles to Go Before They Sleep

Years ago, when I was a high school kid avidly following my hometown teams in The Washington Post, I grew to dislike the writing of Michael Wilbon. But, as both of us matured and he became more of a national personality, my opinion changed and I often wondered what about him had irritated me so. Then, about 3-1/2 weeks ago, it all came rushing back.

I've been waiting for the right moment to reply to Wilbon's post Olympic comments that Sidney Crosby is "miles ahead" of Alex Ovechkin. With the next pending epic showdown between the two on the horizon in a few short hours, I figured now is as good a time as any. What bothered me about Wilbon back then was that he wrote as if he was the foremost expert about whatever topic he was dissecting - that only his opinion counted and that he was knowledgeable enough about whatever topic he was covering to be considered an expert. However, when it comes to hockey, he's not smarter than a fifth grader.

I can stomach the opinions of beat writers, columnists and radio hosts - even fans - who follow specific teams on a daily basis. Often I don't agree with them - and I have been known to call one or two an idiot on occasion - but at least they usually present enough evidence or have seen enough games or actually watch the sport they are talking about enough to have a somewhat educated opinion. Back in my high school days Wilbon would show up to cover the Caps in April, usually during some sort of complete postseason collapse, and pretend to be a hockey expert. He'd keep referring to all the Blackhawks games he had watched as a kid growing up in Chicago and make some ridiculously bold - and usually incorrect judgment - based on the four or five Caps games he had watched in the previous 10 days or so. Then, it would be another year before he'd write about anything hockey-related.

This year Wilbon decided to jump on the hockey bandwagon when all the non-fans tuned in to see the scintillating U.S. - Canada Olympic matchups, and after the stacked Canadian team - clearly one of the most talented rosters ever assembled - struggled mightily to overcome the youthful, inexperienced Americans for the Gold medal. It was after that game that Wilbon decided that he was once again a hockey expert.

There are two ways to look at the Ovechkin - Crosby rivalry. From a team perspective, clearly Crosby has the advantage with two Finals appearances and a Cup to his credit, although the argument could be made that until this season he had a better supporting cast. On the other hand, from and individual perspective, there's no argument that Ovechkin has accomplished more - scoring titles, Hart trophies, Calder Trophy, etc.

If you want to say that Crosby is the better player because of the Cup, I can deal with that. I happen to think that Ovechkin plays harder night in and night out and has a bigger overall impact on the game than Crosby, but that's my biased opinion. No matter what, you are going to have those who favor Joe Montana over Dan Marino because of the rings. That's understandable and defendable. The bottom line is, however, that every athlete mentioned in this paragraph is a first-ballot Hall of Fame talent and one of the greatest players their respective sports have ever seen.

The absurdity of Wilbon's opinion is that he made it based on Crosby's having also achieved an Olympic gold medal, while Ovechkin's undermanned, questionably coached Russian team was sent packing in the quarterfinals. What? You are going to say that a player is "miles ahead" of another player because his supremely talented team won a championship in two week, a one-and-done format in a sport that usually takes 2-1/2 months of pressure-packed playoff series to figure out which team is the best?

Seriously Mr. PTI, how do you think Canada would have done if you plugged Ovechkin into that lineup instead of him having to play on a team that has been known to give less that its best effort consistently over the past 20 or so years and that had nine players on its roster who aren't even in the the NHL?

Ovechkin vs. Crosby or Crosby vs. Ovechkin. As hockey fans we are fortunate and should be thankful that we will be treated to many more years of their amazing individual performances and head-to-head battles. It's Bird vs. Magic. LeBron vs. Kobe. Ali vs. Frazier. Whether you love Ovie or cheer for Sid, you tune in just to watch them. Those who say that Ovechkin is the best in the world have plenty of evidence in their favor, as do those who say Crosby is the greatest.

But once again Michael Wilbon, in trying to portray himself as hockey expert at a time when less knowledgeable fans had jumped on the sport's bandwagon, has shown how little he truly knows about the game. Hey Mike, stick to arguing with Kornheiser and leave our sport alone. And by the way, Tony is miles ahead of you as a columnist.

As for the rest of you, enjoy tonight's game!

Better Today Than Yesterday

Well, after sitting on the sidelines in 2009, apparently the Washington Capitals and General manager George McPhee decided that they needed to add a few more pieces to the puzzle in order to go deeper in the playoffs and possibly compete for a Stanley Cup. While many other teams stood pat, the Caps were the big "buyers" on Deadline Day. And, without question, the NHL points leaders are a better team today than they were yesterday. Best of all, they didn't do anything to really disrupt the team chemistry.

In: Tough, gritty and battle-tested winger Scott Walker from Carolina; hard-working and skilled two-way center Eric Belanger; former Cap d-man Milan Jurcina; and Joe Corvo, a potential top-four defenseman.

Out: Two second-round draft picks, a sixth- and seventh-round pick; defenseman Brian Pothier and Hershey forward Oskar Osala, a former fourth-round pick.

The big question is: Where do these guys fit, and who might be packing his bags? The good thing is that bringing in solid two-way players will send a message to some of the forwards who haven't been playing both ends of the ice. With such a large advantage in the division and conference races, bringing in some quality forwards will create competition and a sense of urgency among the players who have been here and might have become complacent.

Here are some additional thoughts:

Eric Belanger is too good to not be in the lineup. Many see him as a hair away from being a legitimate second-line center. This season he has 35 points in 60 games and ranks seventh in the NHL in faceoff percentage. Belanger is a solid two-way player. While the Caps' defense has been widely criticized of late, you have to understand that all five players need to play defense in hockey, and the Caps' forwards often have been as guilty on the defensive end as the d-men have. One player not pulling his weight creates a huge disadvantage in your own end. Puck possession and winning faceoffs are huge in the playoffs and when short-handed, so expect Belanger to see critical ice time when the team is protecting a lead and possibly to help bolster an average penalty-killing unit. Could Belanger see some second-line minutes to help that unit defensively? Maybe. Taking a look at the line combinations, we might see something like this:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble
Fleischmann-Belanger-Semin
Laich-Morrison-Fehr
Walker/Chimera-Steckel-Bradley

This leaves Quentin Laing and Boyd Gordon as the odd-men out. The Gordon, Steckel Bradley line has been a great fourth line, but Gordon has kind of been in and out of the doghouse at times this year and struggled with some injuries. Chimera was hurt during the break, so Walker provides insurance. Not having to play Fleischmann out of place at center makes the Caps stronger up the middle and gives them four legit faceoff guys who are committed to playing both ends of the ice. Center is the most critical forward position when it comes to two-way play. While neither Belanger nor Morrison is a true second-line center, they both are high-end third centers and are interchangeable, bringing different attributes to the table.

This lineup has tremendous flexibility and can match up with any team on a nightly basis. Want to go up-tempo and stretch the ice against a slow, plodding defensive team? Plug in Chimera and Fehr. Want to batten down the hatches and go toe-to-toe with a grinding team? Plug in Walker and Chimera and sit Fehr. And, one thing the caps have been missing is another tough guy to do some of the dirty work. Walker fits that bill and will take some of the load off of the often-overmatched Matt Bradley while easing the burden on John Erskine.

Looking at the defense, you also have an abundance of styles to choose from. At the beginning you are probably going to see something like this:

Green-Schultz
Corvo-Morrisonn/Jurcina/Erskine
Poti-Erskine/Jurcina

The X-factors: John Carlson and Karl Alzner

Clearly, after the solid Olympic performance of Jurcina, McPhee felt that Pothier was expendable. A good locker-room guy who moves the puck fairly well, Pothier just isn't the physical presence the Caps need in the corners or in front of the net. He's much more finesse than flash, and really the team doesn't need another Tom Poti. So, to take a chance that a guy like Corvo, who has been a legit top-four d-man throughout his career and has a plus-41 rating during that span, in return for a player like Pothier makes all the sense in the world. When the Caps struggle, they often get bogged down in their own end and have trouble moving the puck, which is something at which Corvo excels. He also provides mobility and can be paired with a larger, more physical player like Jurcina or John Erskine or a more traditional stay-at-home player like Shaone Morrisonn.

That leaves Poti, also not a real physical presence, to pair with one of the other bigger, tougher defensemen. I just don't see the Caps benefiting by having Morrisonn and Poti on the ice together, and if Corvo steps up and performs, quite frankly one of those guys could at times be on the outside looking in. More likely, however, with the addition of tougher guys like Walker and Chimera in recent months, the Caps will give Erskine and Jurcina 20 games or so to prove themselves and earn a consistent spot in the lineup. And if Corvo, Erskine or Jurcina can't step up to do the job, Alzner and Carlson are not bad options. In 1998 an injury forced a young Brendan Witt into the lineup, and he was part of a memorable run to the Stanley Cup Finals.

The expectation is to see a bunch of combinations during the next 10 games or so and then a settled lineup to develop chemistry over the final 10 contests heading into the playoffs.

At the end of the day, the Caps didn't give up a ton (the extra second-round pick for Corvo is a bit bothersome if he doesn't work out, but if he returns to form the deal is a steal) and have added toughness, character, defensive-mindedness and a bit of skill. Several "experts" have called them the big winners today, but in reality we won't know that for hopefully 2-1/2 months or so. If they are, we'll all be celebrating...

People Everywhere Are Talking Hockey

I find myself in Florida, where my company runs the Big Ten/BIG EAST Baseball Challenge, which takes place this weekend in St. Petersburg and Clearwater, FL, during the biggest hockey event of the past four years. While it's hardly hockey country, people here are jacked up and talking about today's U.S.-Switzerland and Canada-Russia games. My challenge: to find a place during my site visits to watch the games. Wish me luck.

In the meantime, spread the word about our event! Thirty NCAA Division I baseball games in three days at current and former major league spring training facilities. Entire weekend pass only $25. Maybe I'll see someone here!

By the way, if you told me in 1980 that I would grow up to be rooting for Russia in a hockey game vs. Canada, I'd have asked you where you got whatever you were smoking.

Should be another epic day of hockey. May not have time to post more, but I'll try.

Olympic Hockey Playoff Picture

Here it is, just the facts, courtesy of James Mirtle's blog. A breakdown to come later, but wanted to get this out there! See below for the playoff round seedings and upcoming schedule.

Great game last night, regardless of who you root for. I'm not sure the U.S. could do that again against Canada, but I thought the same thing in '96. Yesterday produced some of the best hockey you'll ever see. And I would be remiss to not mention the Ovechkin game-changing hit on Jagr. He provides that intangible physicality and all-out effort that often has been missing from Russian squads in past years. If you get a chance, go back and watch the hit on video and look at the priceless reaction of the players on the Russian bench. When can you remember a Russian team ever showing that much emotion or excitement on the ice? This team has as good a chance as anyone heading into the playoff round. The rest of this tournament should be amazing. Enjoy!

Thanks to James Mirtle for posting this information:

1. United States
2. Sweden
3. Russia
4. Finland
5. Czech Republic
6. Canada
7. Slovakia
8. Switzerland
9. Belarus
10. Norway
11. Germany
12. Latvia

Qualifying Round (Tuesday):
G1: Czech Rep. vs. Latvia
G2: Canada vs. Germany
G3: Slovakia vs. Norway
G4: Switzerland vs. Belarus

Quarterfinals (Wednesday):
Q1. United States vs. Switzerland/Belarus
Q2. Sweden vs. Slovakia/Norway
Q3. Russia vs. Canada/Germany
Q4. Finland vs. Czech Rep./Latvia

Semi-finals (Friday)
Q1 vs. Q4
Q2 vs. Q3

Bronze-medal game (Saturday)
Semi-final losers

Gold-medal game (Sunday)
Semi-final winners

U.S. - Canada Preview

“All-Star teams fail because they rely solely on the individual’s talents. The Soviets are successful because they take those talents and mold them into a system designed for the betterment of the team.”

As a youth hockey coach I quote Herb Brooks a lot. Yes, when I do it the kids on my teams look at me the same way the 1980 U.S. squad stared at Brooks – like I’m speaking, well, Russian. But take a look at the quote above. It’s not a direct “Brooks-ism,” but it was taken from the movie Miracle.

Read the quote and apply it to what we have seen so far in the Olympic hockey tournament. A team like Switzerland, which has a group of players that competes together regularly and has developed a system that fits the talents and limitations of its personnel, can give a hastily-assembled squad such as Canada – and the United States, for that matter – a run for its money. Unfortunately for the Swiss, the loss to Candada ultimately was decided by the most unfair, although admittedly exciting, exercise in sport – a shootout. After playing an incredibly disciplined and heady team game and coming from two goals down to tie, Switzerland lost out in a one-on-one contest that truly does highlight the individual over the team.

So, as the Canadians and Americans prepare for their “Rivalry Sunday” grudge match (this may be the greatest one-day display of hockey in our lifetimes, with the Fins facing the Swedes and the Czechs taking on the Russians in addition to U.S.-Canada), who has the edge? Well, on paper surely the Canadians are superior, but to this point neither team has hit on all cylinders.

Here’s what we know: The crowd will be jacked up, and the energy in the building will be astronomical. Both teams will come out flying, so there should be some fast-paced, physical, don’t-blink-for-a-second action right out of the gate. That emotion and energy most likely will lead to a second-period lull in the action as the players bodies recover and they settle in for a revved-up third period.

This is the type of game that isn’t going to come down to who wants it more. Everyone will be sacrificing his body for the good of the team. It will come down to which unit actually plays more like a team – at both ends of the ice. The key will be whether the U.S. can weather the first 10 minutes without giving up multiple goals. If the Americans can get through that opening barrage even or down a goal, they have a chance. But if Canada nets a couple early and really gets it rolling, the U.S. will be in for a long night – unless Ryan Miller, who has looked sharp thus far, returns to his early-season brilliance.

It’s hard to get a feel for which scenario will play out, but here’s a hunch to mull over: The U.S. has a group that seems to be a little more accustomed to playing a two-way, grinding style, clogging up the passing lanes and generally making games ugly. On the NHL-sized ice surface, that’s the type of effort it will take to win this game. The U.S. already has positioned itself well and has nothing to lose. Canada will be under a great deal of pressure to break out and show not only the world, but also its own demanding supporters, why it entered the tournament as the favorite. Miller will thrive in this environment and keep his team in the game long enough for the Americans to win ugly. The U.S. will get goals from Phil Kessel, who will net a pair, Jack Johnson and Ryan Callahan en route to a 4-2 decision.

Unfortunately, this means that if the two teams meet again later in the tournament that Canada would, in my mind, be extremely tough to beat.

Keys to the Game
U.S. Speed on the Outside vs. Canadian Defensive Corps
I’ve said all along that Niedermayer and Pronger are well past their better days. Young blueliner Drew Doughty made a poor decision that cost Canada a goal vs. the Swiss. The Americans should be able to take the puck wide, crash the net and score a couple of ugly goals. The Canadian forwards, including the superstars, must commit to playing a two-way game to win. In addition, Canada’s defensemen need to be able to support the forwards offensively and still recover to slow down the American transition game.

Ryan Miller
He’s been solid so far, but will see a lot more rubber tonight. I like the way he’s been able to ease his way into the tournament, and I expect a great effort vs. the Canadians.

Canada’s Big Guns vs. Themselves
Something has been missing in the play of the top Canadian players. They just aren’t clicking yet. There were several botched odd-man rushes against Switzerland – two in a row in the second period that involved Sidney Crosby and ultimately allowed the Swiss to gain some momentum and net their first goal. Once they do get it rolling, though, watch out. The U.S. has to play a disciplined, defense-first style with their forwards committed to backchecking aggressively and pursuing the Canadian forwards through the neutral zone, allowing the American defense to have the confidence to stand guys up and take the body.

The Home Crowd
Will the Canadian fans remain supportive and energize the home team if things don’t go well right off the opening faceoff, or will they start to demonstrate their frustration? The amount of pressure felt by Canada will be directly proportional to the fan reaction. This part of the game within the game will be extremely interesting to watch.

Other Olympic Observations - The Savvy Swedes
Sweden’s conservative, methodical efforts thus far were surprising for a team whose core has played together countless times over the past decade. The Swedes have almost looked as though they have been saving energy and working the kinks out. No one really has stood out, although the team defensive play has been very solid. Sweden has played disciplined hockey in both ends, allowed Henrik Lundqvist to play his way into the tournament and d just enough to record the win. Perhaps they are smarter than the rest of us. The Swedes are so savvy and even-keeled that I always feel like whatever they are doing is part of the master plan. Peter Forsberg doesn’t appear to be anywhere near his old self, but I did think that the Sedins brought some needed energy to the ice for Sweden, which is still my favorite to win gold because of their depth and experience at both ends of the rink. We’ll learn more tonight when they face Finland, their arch-rival, in what should be a fast and physical matchup.

Day 1 Thoughts

Admittedly I only saw about 2/3 of the U.S. game and none of the Canada game, as my son had a rare weeknight hockey game about 90 minutes away from Baltimore. But really the day went pretty much as expected.

United States vs. Switzerland
This was a perfect opening test for the U.S. A game they should win, but still a challenging matchup against a scrappy, physical team with a solid goaltender. The workmanlike win will give the U.S. confidence, but the challenges presented by the Swiss showed the Americans how much work they had to do. Ryan Miller made several difficult saves and looked sharp in net, although the goal allowed was clearly his fault. The U.S. defensemen move the puck well, but were a bit sloppy in their own end at times. American forwards must transition more quickly, make better decisions with the lead and back check harder. I like the line combinations, but continue to be amazed by the fact that once-talented Chris Drury has gone from a skill player to an energy guy. But, the team needed that way. The U.S. looked tired in the third and was not committed to the two-way game. That will hurt them against the better teams.

Canada vs. Norway
I'm relying on third-party reports here, but it sounds like Canada may have experienced some opening-night jitters and really looked disjointed in the first period. But once it started to click, the talent took over. Luongo was not really tested in goal, making 15 saves. As the tournament goes on the Canadians will get better and better working as a unit, but the pressure also will increase with each passing day. That's an interesting dynamic to follow.

Russia vs. Latvia
The Russians came out with a lot of energy and flash, which sometimes has been lacking with them in past opening-round games. Then, once they got comfortable, it seemed as though they fell into a pattern of toying with the overmatched Latvians. Nabakov seemed to lose concentration a bit in the third period, but he wasn't getting a ton of help. Russia's blue line corps is a concern for sure. The one thing that they have, however, is the full-time energy of Alex Ovechkin. I imagine that it's hard to take a shift off when your best player is out there going 100 mph all the time. That's an element the Russians have missed in past Olympics. If Ovechkin's effort can continue to challenge his teammates to focus and give their best, the Russian's will be tough to beat. I thought Fedorov looked more rested and energetic than in his recent NHL seasons, and he remains one of the most savvy players in the world.