U.S. - Canada Preview

“All-Star teams fail because they rely solely on the individual’s talents. The Soviets are successful because they take those talents and mold them into a system designed for the betterment of the team.”

As a youth hockey coach I quote Herb Brooks a lot. Yes, when I do it the kids on my teams look at me the same way the 1980 U.S. squad stared at Brooks – like I’m speaking, well, Russian. But take a look at the quote above. It’s not a direct “Brooks-ism,” but it was taken from the movie Miracle.

Read the quote and apply it to what we have seen so far in the Olympic hockey tournament. A team like Switzerland, which has a group of players that competes together regularly and has developed a system that fits the talents and limitations of its personnel, can give a hastily-assembled squad such as Canada – and the United States, for that matter – a run for its money. Unfortunately for the Swiss, the loss to Candada ultimately was decided by the most unfair, although admittedly exciting, exercise in sport – a shootout. After playing an incredibly disciplined and heady team game and coming from two goals down to tie, Switzerland lost out in a one-on-one contest that truly does highlight the individual over the team.

So, as the Canadians and Americans prepare for their “Rivalry Sunday” grudge match (this may be the greatest one-day display of hockey in our lifetimes, with the Fins facing the Swedes and the Czechs taking on the Russians in addition to U.S.-Canada), who has the edge? Well, on paper surely the Canadians are superior, but to this point neither team has hit on all cylinders.

Here’s what we know: The crowd will be jacked up, and the energy in the building will be astronomical. Both teams will come out flying, so there should be some fast-paced, physical, don’t-blink-for-a-second action right out of the gate. That emotion and energy most likely will lead to a second-period lull in the action as the players bodies recover and they settle in for a revved-up third period.

This is the type of game that isn’t going to come down to who wants it more. Everyone will be sacrificing his body for the good of the team. It will come down to which unit actually plays more like a team – at both ends of the ice. The key will be whether the U.S. can weather the first 10 minutes without giving up multiple goals. If the Americans can get through that opening barrage even or down a goal, they have a chance. But if Canada nets a couple early and really gets it rolling, the U.S. will be in for a long night – unless Ryan Miller, who has looked sharp thus far, returns to his early-season brilliance.

It’s hard to get a feel for which scenario will play out, but here’s a hunch to mull over: The U.S. has a group that seems to be a little more accustomed to playing a two-way, grinding style, clogging up the passing lanes and generally making games ugly. On the NHL-sized ice surface, that’s the type of effort it will take to win this game. The U.S. already has positioned itself well and has nothing to lose. Canada will be under a great deal of pressure to break out and show not only the world, but also its own demanding supporters, why it entered the tournament as the favorite. Miller will thrive in this environment and keep his team in the game long enough for the Americans to win ugly. The U.S. will get goals from Phil Kessel, who will net a pair, Jack Johnson and Ryan Callahan en route to a 4-2 decision.

Unfortunately, this means that if the two teams meet again later in the tournament that Canada would, in my mind, be extremely tough to beat.

Keys to the Game
U.S. Speed on the Outside vs. Canadian Defensive Corps
I’ve said all along that Niedermayer and Pronger are well past their better days. Young blueliner Drew Doughty made a poor decision that cost Canada a goal vs. the Swiss. The Americans should be able to take the puck wide, crash the net and score a couple of ugly goals. The Canadian forwards, including the superstars, must commit to playing a two-way game to win. In addition, Canada’s defensemen need to be able to support the forwards offensively and still recover to slow down the American transition game.

Ryan Miller
He’s been solid so far, but will see a lot more rubber tonight. I like the way he’s been able to ease his way into the tournament, and I expect a great effort vs. the Canadians.

Canada’s Big Guns vs. Themselves
Something has been missing in the play of the top Canadian players. They just aren’t clicking yet. There were several botched odd-man rushes against Switzerland – two in a row in the second period that involved Sidney Crosby and ultimately allowed the Swiss to gain some momentum and net their first goal. Once they do get it rolling, though, watch out. The U.S. has to play a disciplined, defense-first style with their forwards committed to backchecking aggressively and pursuing the Canadian forwards through the neutral zone, allowing the American defense to have the confidence to stand guys up and take the body.

The Home Crowd
Will the Canadian fans remain supportive and energize the home team if things don’t go well right off the opening faceoff, or will they start to demonstrate their frustration? The amount of pressure felt by Canada will be directly proportional to the fan reaction. This part of the game within the game will be extremely interesting to watch.

Other Olympic Observations - The Savvy Swedes
Sweden’s conservative, methodical efforts thus far were surprising for a team whose core has played together countless times over the past decade. The Swedes have almost looked as though they have been saving energy and working the kinks out. No one really has stood out, although the team defensive play has been very solid. Sweden has played disciplined hockey in both ends, allowed Henrik Lundqvist to play his way into the tournament and d just enough to record the win. Perhaps they are smarter than the rest of us. The Swedes are so savvy and even-keeled that I always feel like whatever they are doing is part of the master plan. Peter Forsberg doesn’t appear to be anywhere near his old self, but I did think that the Sedins brought some needed energy to the ice for Sweden, which is still my favorite to win gold because of their depth and experience at both ends of the rink. We’ll learn more tonight when they face Finland, their arch-rival, in what should be a fast and physical matchup.

It's All About Playing Better

Enough of the demons and exorcisms. No more playoff beards or rocking the red. You don't have to eat the same meal you ate before every game this year or wear the same underwear. None of that matters right now for the Washington Capitals.

There's no need to be long-winded, humorous or derisive at this point. I'm going to keep it simple, just like the Caps need to. Tonight - and the success or failure of this season - hinges on one thing: making a 60-minute (or longer) commitment to playoff hockey.

Simplified that means:

1) Play fast - vertically, not horizontally
2) Take the puck to the outside, get it in deep and forecheck like there's no tomorrow
3) If you lose the puck, skate hard, backcheck and then get the heck off the ice so fresh players can jump on
4) Play physical, but within the flow of the game; don't go out of your way to be physical
5) Put people who get near your goalie on their backs
6) No lazy penalties - shorter shifts
7) Go to the net when you don't have the puck
8) Shoot the puck on net when a teammate is moving in that direction
9) Do not let Lundqvist see the puck
10) Treat EVERY player like he's Sean Avery

Bruce Boudreau has said many times this year that the Caps are "too cute." The great news is that they often are talented enough to get away playing that style. The bad news is that it's not working right now. Boudreau also said that last year he thought it took the Caps a few games to learn what it takes to win in the playoffs. He had hoped that learning curve would be shortened or eliminated this year, but apparently it hasn't. Still, it's not too late. I'm pretty confident the Caps will dominate the game tonight. The question that lingers, though, is whether Lundqvist will be too good and steal another win for the Rangers. That's why this 2-0 hole seems so enormous right now.

The Caps need a few breaks, but you make your own breaks by how you play. If they commit to a playoff style, everything will work out fine. I'm just fearful that some guys currently in the lineup may not be capable of making that commitment. We will soon find out. Faceoff in less than two hours.

If I Were Bruce Boudreau ...

I'm not Bruce. He's a great coach. I have all the faith in the world in him and believe he will turn this thing around. But, if I were Bruce, here is what I would do:

1) Bench Michael Nylander - Right now the Caps need to play fast and physical, not skate around in circles waiting to make the perfect pass. When they are on their game, going 100 miles an hour, getting the puck in deep, hitting and forechecking hard, they are really tough to beat. NONE of that is Nylander. He often halts their momentum and makes the blind passes that turn into the giveaways that lead to odd-man rushes and expose guys like Jeff Schultz and Jose Theodore.

For the past month the Caps have been able to play on cruise control effectively against inferior competition. That's the pace that Nylander likes and allows him to put up numbers. The only time he showed any energy this year was when Keith Aucoin was playing his butt off down the stretch and making a case to send Nylander to the playoff scratch list. A nice segue to my second point...

2) Play Keith Aucoin - This guy brought energy every night the last month of the season. There were games when Boudreau used him on the power play to create traffic and work the corners because the team was listless. Aucoin really made a case for himself to be included on the playoff roster, and right now he's the kind of player they need in the lineup. It's time to roll up the sleeves and go to work, not to put on the figure skates and make pretty moves and passes. The Caps created very litte traffic in front of the net last night and just didn't maintain playoff-level energy f0r the entire game. Again, after a month of cruising, it's hard to just flip that switch and go. I thought they were physical for the first 10 minutes and made a statement, but didn't make the full 60-minute commitment you need in the playoffs. Ovechkin and Laich bring that every night, so adding another guy who does to go on a third line makes sense.

Keep in mind that Chris Clark has been cleared to play as well, so if you don't want to steal Aucoin from Hershey, dressing the captain would have to be a huge emotional lift. You think he might be ready to play? After missing last year's stretch run and playoffs and most of this season, I think the Caps' most popular player in the locker room would take the team to another level of intensity almost by himself. Either Aucoin or Clark is a better option than "Circles."

3) Bench Jeff Schultz - I defintely am not a Jeff Schultz hater. Bruce's assesment that he is sound positionally and generally makes good decisions is fair enough. But, with the Caps playing more wide open down the stretch, committing more neutral zone turnovers and not backchecking as ferociously as normal, Schultz has been exposed as someone who is too immobile to keep up when the game becomes more wide open. So, until the Caps forwards start taking care of the puck and getting back on defense more consistently, Schultz is just not a good fit. Brian Pothier deserves a chance, and if he doesn't work out you have to turn to Karl Alzner. Alzner is probably the Caps' third-best defenseman right now anyway, so why not put your best team on the ice? I'd be happy with both Alzner and Pothier in the lineup.

4) Shorten the leash on Theodore - For better or worse, he has to the guy. There's no choice, and to not show confidence in him after just one loss would send the wrong message to him and the team. What happens if Varlamov gives up two goals on three shots as a replacement? Then you've got two goalies with no confidence. Remember how Jim Schoenfield ruined Jim Carey by yanking him in and out of the lineup vs. the Penguins in the playoffs years ago? Bruce can't afford to mess up a great team by playing mind games with the goalies. However, if Theodore gives up two early tallies Saturday, you have to give him the hook and hope Varlamov comes in with nothing to lose, performs well and builds the confidence to start the next game. We're not asking for Patrick Roy or Ken Dryden. All the Caps need is for their goalie to make one or two big saves per game and they will be in good shape. Theodore made zero key saves last night.

It's definitely not panic time, but this is not mid-season, either. Nylander's play has been the same for as long as he's been a Capital. Last night was not unusual, so removing him is hardly a knee-jerk reaction. Schultz has been exposed for weeks, and you've eased Pothier back into the lineup. Alzner showed he is a NHL-caliber defenseman for a good part of the season. Again, playing him makes sense. And Theodore has been inconsistent all year. If he is hot Saturday then by all mans go with him, but sticking with him too long could put the Caps in a very difficult hole to climb out of.