Caps - Canadiens Playoff Preview

Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
First Game – April 15, 2010
Verizon Center (Washington, DC)

Washington Probable Line Combinations

Forwards
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble
Laich-Fleischmann-Semin
Chimera-Belanger-Fehr
Bradley-Steckel-Gordon

The Fore-word:
Brendan Morrison has practiced as part of the first line this week, taking the ill Nick Backstrom’s spot on Tuesday and alternating with Mike Knuble on Wednesday. Knuble was picked up to provide a physical presence up front during the playoffs and to create space for Backstrom and Ovechkin. Clearly Knuble (29 goals) is a lock to play, so it appears as though Morrison, who tailed off considerably in offensive production during the season’s second half, will be a healthy scratch along with Scott Walker and Quintin Laing. The Caps, who play at a faster pace than possibly every NHL team, do so despite having a group of big, strong forwards. The above lineup features only one player shorter than 6-feet (Eric Belanger) and only two players who weigh less than 200 lbs. (Belanger, 187 and Tomas Fleischmann, 192).

Defensive Pairings
Schultz-Green
Morrisonn-Corvo
Poti-Carlson

Defense Department:
Washington’s defense features a rare combination of size, skill and mobility. D.C.’s blueliners average 6-3, 210 lbs., but head coach Bruce Boudreau has made sure in recent weeks to pair more mobile players such as Mike Green and Joe Corvo with more physical, stay-at-home types such as NHL plus-minus leader Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn. The third pairing of John Carlson and Tom Poti is a strong skating and puck-moving duo that also can be physical when needed. On most teams the big, swift-skating Carlson would be counted on to provide offense, but in his first year in Washington the U.S. World Junior Championships hero has assumed a more conservative, defensive role in the shadow of Green and Corvo. This has allowed him to adjust to the speed of the NHL game without feeling the pressure of having to do too much at both ends of the ice. Still, he has carried and moved the puck with more confidence in recent weeks and has created quite a bit of offense as the playoffs have approached.

Expect John Erskine and Tyler Sloan to open the series as healthy scratches, which shows just how far the Caps’ defense has come in a year. Erskine was one of the team’s most dependable d-men during last year’s playoffs and at times in the past has played as one of Washington’s top-four blueliners. If you look at statistics, overall skill, size and mobility, the Caps’ defense stacks up favorably against just about any defensive corps in the East. Where Washington has gotten into trouble in the past has been when the forwards have not committed to giving the effort at both ends of the ice required to go deep into the playoffs. The Caps have focused on this type of approach in recent weeks with encouraging results. They allowed three or fewer goals in their last six contests, going 5-0-1 and allowing just 13 total goals in that span.

Goaltending Depth Chart
Theodore
Varlamov

Jose Theodore has bounced back from an inconsistent 2009 and first half of 2010 to place a stranglehold on the starting job heading into the postseason. He is unbeaten in regulation in his last 23 starts (20-0-3) dating to Jan. 12, posting a 2.58 GAA and .922 save percentage during that span. Perhaps most impressive and supportive of the theory that he needs to make the key saves and not all the saves has been Theodore’s third-period performance during the streak. In those 23 contests he has allowed just nine goals on 229 shots. “Obviously the third period is always more important,” Theodore said. “Either your down a goal and don’t want to go down two goals or you’re up a goal and want to make a big save to keep it that way. I just try to focus on making the big save at key times, and a lot of times that can be the difference between a win and a loss. I’ve been pretty focused the second half of the season – really all year long – and I just hope I can keep doing the same thing.”

Last year Theodore was unceremoniously yanked in favor of Semyon Varlamov after a Game 1 quarterfinal loss to the Rangers, but Boudreau has said there will be no such quick hook this year. “I told Jose last week, Boudreau said. “He knows and he’s earned it. This is an entirely different situation from last year. He’s been our guy for a while, and his last loss was in early January. Obviously he could lose again, but last year during the last 10 games or so his game wasn’t anywhere near where it has been this year. There will be no short leash. He’s our guy.”

Added Theodore: “A lot of people counted me out when the season started for different reasons. It’s been a challenge for me to have a solid season since training camp and to have a chance to play in the playoffs. With the team we have, that’s where you want to be is in the playoffs, and now finally they are starting.”

As an aside, this season Theodore only appeared in one game against the team he previously won the Hart and Vezina trophies with, allowing four goals on 25 shots in relief of Michael Neuvirth. For his career Theodore is 2-1-1 with a 4.05 GAA and .877 save percentage vs. the Habs.

Montreal Lineup Notes
The Canadiens boast a small and quick batch of forwards led by the likes of Mike Cammalleri (5-9, 182), Brian Gionta (5-7, 173) and Tomas Plekanec (5-11, 198). Even Scott Gomez, who is solidly built, is by no means a giant at 5-11, 202. You might think that against a bigger team this could provide an advantage, but the Caps love the up-tempo game and have one of the league’s more mobile defensive units, so that should prove to be a wash in this series. If anything, Washington’s ability to match the Habs’ speed and wear them down with physical play from the likes of Ovechkin, Knuble, Jason Chimera and Matt Bradley – along with the defensemen – should provide the Caps with a big advantage.

Gomez always seems to play well against the Caps, and he recorded three assists in Montreal’s last two regular-season outings. Gionta scored a goal in each of the last three games, while defenseman Andrei Markov notched a goal and two assists in the Canadiens’ final contest vs. Toronto. Cammalleri has struggled since returning from a knee injury that he suffered in January. He managed just two assists in the team’s final nine games and has not scored a goal since January 23. Still, Cammalleri is another player who has fared well against the Caps in the past.

“They are quick and they are all proven,” Boudreau said of Montreal’s forwards. “When you are a small guy and one of the better players in the league, like Gionta or Cammalleri or Plekanec, you have to be special in terms of your drive and determination. It’s hard for small guys to make it in this league unless they are special. To do what they’ve done at this level they’ve had to be willing to pay the price and do the things that the bigger guys will do. I anticipate them to be at the top of their game.”

In goal, Carey Price played all four games against Washington this year, posting a 2-1-1 record and a 3.38 GAA. Jaroslav Halak, who did not play against the Caps, has allowed four goals in each of his last two starts. For the Canadiens, defenseman Paul Mara, who scored a big goal for the Rangers against Washington in last year’s playoffs, and power-play igniter Glenn Metropolit, a former Cap, are out with injuries.

One of the key matchups of the series will be Habs’ defenseman Markov against Ovechkin. Markov missed the first two contests against the Caps this year, but returned to play the final two games, helping hold Ovechkin to a total of two points in those outings. In the Feb. 10 game, a 6-5 Canadiens’ overtime victory, Markov logged more than 30 minutes of ice time, frequently matching up against Ovechkin, who played more than 29 minutes that night.

The Breakdown
Montreal has the type of team that can give the Caps fits on a given night. They are a quick, pesky team that can really press an opponent on the forecheck and capitalize quickly on mistakes. Montreal also has a solid, veteran defensive unit that is not prone to making a lot of mistakes. The issue here is whether the Canadiens can hold up in a long series against a bigger, more physical Washington team that is just as fast, more potent offensively and more skilled. When you look at it that way, the prospects don’t look encouraging for the Habs. The two real keys to the series are the willingness of the Caps’ forwards to commit to playing hard at both ends and the play of Halak. If Halak is able to play at a world-class level for the length of the series, Montreal has a chance to pull off the upset. But, even if Halak is at the top of his game and Washington is solid at both ends, the Caps just have too much firepower for the Canadiens to compete.

Season Series
Each team went 2-1-1 in this year’s series, with Montreal snapping the Caps’ 14-game winning streak in that 6-5 OT victory Feb. 10 and also winning in regulation Nov. 10. Washington won in a shootout Nov. 28 and earned a win in regulation Jan. 5. Said Boudreau: “Quite frankly they should have beaten us three out of four this year. It looks better because there are two games where we pulled the goalie and scored late to force overtime. It could have easily been 3-1 or 4-0 in their favor, so I’m sure that they have loads of confidence against us.”

Even Steven
Washington is the best 5-on-5 team in the league, having recorded 213 goals, while the Habs were the worst full-strength squad with 132 tallies. Again, if the Caps forwards maintain their defensive integrity, Montreal has no chance. Overall, Washington led the NHL in goals-per-game at 3.82, with the Habs ranking 26th at 2.56.

Special Teams
With the Caps leading the league in power-play percentage at 25.2 percent and the Canadiens ranking second at 21.8 percent, on the surface special teams play looks to be a a wash. Not so fast, though. The Caps draw a lot more penalties, primarily because of their speed, size and skill. They received 52 more man advantages than the Habs did. However, Washington has struggled for stretches on the penalty kill this season, ranking among the top 10 at home for most of the year, but among the bottom 10 away from Verizon Center. So the team that is more disciplined and stays out of the penalty box should be able to benefit substantially.

Intangibles
Washington has been nearly unbeatable on home ice the second half of the season, so potentially getting four games at Verizon Center is a big advantage. The Caps also have learned from slow starts in their last three playoff series and seem to be primed to avoid that this time around. Several of the Caps’ healthy scratches would fit nicely into the Habs’ lineup, so there is a decided overall depth advantage if the series goes beyond five games and injuries become a factor.

On the other hand, Montreal has nothing to lose as an eighth seed and can draw from its 2002 upset of top-seeded Boston as inspiration. The Canadiens also have a much richer postseason history than the Caps, but most of that was forged a long time ago – and the Habs have a richer playoff history than everyone else in the NHL. If they can steal a win early in D.C., the Canadiens will return home to a jacked-up fanbase that may be able to push them far enough beyond their perceived limits to make this a series.

Prediction
Washington wins in six. Halak will play well enough to help Montreal steal a couple of wins, but the constant offensive barrage from the Caps will ultimately wear him down. Washington will continue its recent commitment to defense and limit the Habs’ scoring opportunities, which paired with the Caps’ firepower will render Halk helpless no matter how well he plays. If Washington gets off to a fast start and Halak’s confidence waivers, this could be a massacre.

Caps Ready to Take Over the Nation's Capital?

The Washington Capitals have an unprecedented opportunity this season. They can literally take over the town – and that mission begins tonight when the puck drops to begin the 2009-10 NHL season as the Caps take on the Bruins in Beantown.

Many doubted that D.C. ever could be a true hockey town, but three men have the franchise perched on the verge of making what once seemed impossible a reality - Alex Ovechkin, unarguably the best player in the world; owner Ted Leonsis; and coach Bruce Boudreau.

Ovechkin, the two-time reigning Hart Trophy recipient and back-to-back players' choice as the league's MVP, has captured the imagination of Washington sports fans like no other athlete since ... well, like no other athlete during my 39 years. Previous teams have captured our hearts – and so have some charismatic athletes – for short periods of time, but no one has elevated a franchise or a sport to the forefront in this locale like the Russian Machine.

Ted Leonsis, plain and simple, is the best professional franchise owner in the D.C.-Baltimore area. He's made hockey affordable for the loyal fans that followed the team during the lean years and is not gouging those same diehards now. He's provided the best in-game experience around. He's embraced the cutting edge of technology and maintained open and (mostly) honest communication with the fan base. And, finally, he's let the hockey experts in the organization do their jobs, which took quite a bit of patience during the down times. The end result is the league's most exciting team along with a true home-ice advantage and an atmosphere that ranks among the best in the NHL. It's certainly a far cry from the 12,000 empty seats we used to see on a Tuesday night in February.

Bruce Boudreau simply has been the most successful coach in professional hockey the past 1-1/2 seasons, compiling an eye-popping 87-41-15 record and winning two Southeast Division championships. Remember, he inherited a team that was in last place in the conference around Thanksgiving 2007, instituting a free-wheeling style that capitalized (pun intended) on the team's speed and skill, and led them all the way to the division crown. He managed this after countless years toiling in relative obscurity as a player and coach at the minor league level.

His formula for success is as plain as the image he projects: Get after the players behind closed doors and challenge them to give their best every time on the ice, be straightforward and let the players know where they stand, show compassion and empathy for those like him who are on the fringe as NHL players and never take shots at anyone publicly. That style breeds loyalty, camaraderie from the top down and the type of chemistry needed to win a championship. Guys may come and go between Washington and Hershey, but instead of sulking, they return to the AHL with a purpose and the unyielding desire to do whatever it takes to get back to Washington and be a part of what Boudreau is building. That is a tribute to the coach, especially in this day and age of temperamental coddled professional athletes.

Oh, and one other piece of the puzzle that is important to recognize is general manger George McPhee, better known as GMGM in Twitter- and blog-speak. He has been often maligned, sometimes beloved and frequently second-guessed by the public and the media. But, at the end of the day, he's the rare sports executive who has successfully taken a veteran, reasonably successful team apart, stripped it down and overseen a complete rebuilding to the point that the team is on the brink of exceeding anything it has accomplished during its 35 years of existence. Love him or hate him, there's something to be said for what McPhee has accomplished.

So, where does that leave us as the Capitals prepare to embark on what potentially could be a historic season for them - one in which they quite possibly could rise to greater heights than ever before? Not only are the Caps a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, some have dared to label them a favorite.

The Penguins are still a great team, but we'll see how they handle Lord Stanley's hangover. The Red Wings lost more talent than ever during the off-season. Boston's success is predicated on the performance of a journeyman goaltender who was the best netminder in the league last year. But can Tim Thomas put together two seasons in a row of that caliber? Chicago seems to be the next Western Conference power, but still may be where the Caps were a year ago; a little bit of seasoning will make them really tough. San Jose? They just can't seem to get it done in April. Others have reloaded, but the Caps enter year three of what seems to be a natural progression toward greatness.

At least one national sports publication has picked the Caps to win the Cup, which as we all know can be a blessing or a curse. Nonetheless, it is a sign of respect. There are two things that I know: I've never seen the Caps win the Stanley Cup, and I've never seen the Caps picked to win the Stanley Cup - by ANYONE. They must be doing something right.

It's an exciting time to be a Caps fan. Those who are already aboard the express should consider themselves lucky. With the way the Redskins, Wizards, Orioles and Nationals are performing these days, Washington is one step away from being a hockey town - for a long time. I believe Ovie has another 11 or so years left on that contract, right? If you haven't gotten your tickets yet, it may be a long time before you can head to Chinatown to Rock the Red. To me, as a long-time Caps supporter who has been involved in youth and amateur hockey in this area for nearly 35 years, that's the coolest part.

Enjoy tonight. Enjoy the season. Remember that only one team ends the year on a truly positive note. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Revel in the fact that people areound North America pay a lot of money to go see YOUR team play. D.C., you have arrived as a hockey town. Let's hope the ride is a long and fruitful one.