Caps' Leaders Emerge in the "Nick" of Time

The Washington Capitals enjoyed the finest regular season by far in franchise history, and they did it with a high-flying, high-powered offense that easily was the highest-scoring in the NHL en route to capturing the Southeast Division, the Eastern Conference top seed and the Presidents’ Trophy. Because of that unprecedented regular-season success it’s possible to see how the Caps might enter the postseason with a “my way or the highway” mentality and the confidence that if they just maintained the status quo everything would be fine.

It’s possible to see how that mentality could creep into the locker room, but in this case it’s not entirely understandable. Not with the core of a team returning for a third try at Lord Stanley’s prize – a group that learned first hand the past two seasons the style of play necessary to have success in April and May.

Fortunately for Washington, this year it only took 5-1/2 periods for the Caps to realize they needed to adapt their approach in the NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals vs. Montreal. They came to the realization in the “Nick” of time, using Nick Backstrom’s first career hat trick to rally from a 4-1 late second-period deficit and escape with a thrilling, yet improbable 6-5 overtime win in Game 2 to even the series at two.

Last season it took the Capitals six periods and a two-games-to-none deficit, which included a goaltender change, to the New York Rangers before the light bulb turned on. Under eerily similar circumstances the Caps fell behind the Habs 2-0 in Game 2 Saturday on Montreal’s first two shots – despite having seven shots on goal of their own – resulting in goaltender Jose Theodore being yanked by coach Bruce Boudreau in favor of Semyon Varlamov for the second consecutive season. While Boudreau didn’t blame Theodore for the goals, the fact that he had given up goals on three straight shots going back to Tomas Plekanec’s overtime game-winner in Game 1 simply could not be overlooked.

So now we can add a D.C. goaltender controversy to the drama that has already enveloped this series. “We’ll have a video session and a long plane ride to Montreal, and during the course of that one of (the goalies) will know (who’s playing),” Boudreau said. “Before this series we said that if we are going to go anywhere this year we probably will have to use both goalies. I still think that we’ll have to use both goalies. Whether Varly or Theo plays Monday, I think they both are going to play again. That’s why we’ve got to keep them sharp.”

That’s just one of the many storylines that has emerged in this series, which has been more closely contested than most had expected and has produced two exhilarating games. The main theme has been the vaunted Washington offense against the Montreal trap and kamikaze shot-blocking defense. For more than 100 minutes that battle had clearly been won by the Habs, allowing them to capture Game 1, 3-2, and build a seemingly insurmountable 4-1 lead that had let the air out of Verizon Center in Game 2.

But then the Caps’ vaunted first line, led by hard-charging Alex Ovechkin, bull-in-a-china-shop Mike Knuble and Backstrom, hockey’s version of a jedeye, decided it was time to lead by example and show the others what needed to be done.

Ovechkin seemed determined to make a statement right from the opening faceoff, steamrolling Marc-Andre Bergeron and Andrei Markov on the first shift to ignite the crowd. The excitement soon turned to gloom, however, as Montreal connected for its first score at the end of that shift and then another just minutes later – the first of three straight by Andrei Kostitsyn

“I felt pretty good today, especially in the first period, and wanted to get into the game,” Ovechkin said. “I wanted to go out and make some hits and take some shots.” Asked about his strategy, he replied, “To destroy people? No. My job is to score goals, and if I get a chance to hit somebody, I’m going to hit him. It was good for me mentally.”

A breakaway goal by Eric Fehr after a turnover and fine feed by Tomas Fleishmann pulled the Caps to within 2-1 before the game was 10 minutes old, but from that point on the contest settled into a familiar pattern, with Washington pressing and forcing passes and shots and Montreal sitting back, clogging the passing and shooting lanes and converging on the net en masse every time the Caps had a real opportunity to score on goaltender Jaroslav Halak. That continued until Kostitsyn scored once on a botched defensive coverage in front and again when a puck that bounced off of him for the natural hat trick and a 4-1 lead late in the second.

That’s when Ovechkin, Backstrom and Knuble decided it was time to take charge. Just moments after Kostitsyn’s third tally, Knuble, the unsung hero of the night, jammed the net, the first time all series a Washington player had gotten into Halak’s face, and distracted the Montreal goaltender enough to allow Backstrom’s bad-angle slapper to sneak through.

4-2. Crowd ignited. Message sent. The third period would be different.

No one ever expected the Caps to give up, but many at Verizon Center had begun to question whether Washington was willing to do what it would take to defeat this pesky and stubborn Canadiens’ club. That question would be answered in the final 20 minutes.

Ovechkin, who had taken the blame for a sub-par Game 1 effort stepped up and took center stage, crashing the net to score on a rebound that barely came loose after Canada-killer John Carlson had deftly faked a Montreal player to the ice and fired a shot at Halak. Then, a few minutes later, with 16:30 left in the contest, Ovechkin took exception with Brian Gionta after a rush on Varlamov, giving the Habs’ forward a couple extra shoves after the whistle. Scott Gomez came to Gionta’s aid, which drew Tom Poti into the mix. In the drop of a hat – or a pair of gloves – two of the sport’s mildest-mannered Americans, Poti and Gomez, were throwing punches.

The fight was action-packed if not awkward, but it really got the crowd in an uproar, and when a camera panned the Caps’ bench, there were smiles all around. It was the first time all series the team had looked relaxed. “I thought it was great,” Boudreau said. “It was the first time I’d seen Tom fight, and the players really rallied around it. They patted Tom on the back. We don’t have a lot of fights, anyway, but it told us something about how much he wanted to win. I thought that after that – even though our power play was struggling – it gave us more life.”

Knuble reared his menacing body again shortly, coming too close to comfort for Halak as yet another Ovechkin shot was nearly blocked. This time, though, the Caps’ captain didn’t give up on the play, pouncing on the rebound and threading a perfect pass to Backstrom for the dunk and a 4-4 tie with slightly more than 10 minutes left in regulation.

It looked as though Washington had all the momentum, but a bad decision by Jeff Schultz and some nifty Montreal passing – aided by poor defensive coverage by Mike Green – resulted in what appeared to be a deciding fifth goal for the Habs with 5:06 left. It wasn’t over, though, as Carlson continued his clutch play against teams representing the Great White North, burying a wrister off of a Backstrom feed with 1:21 remaining for his first career playoff goal.

Then, in overtime, three momentum changers teamed up, with Poti and Knuble feeding Backstrom for the game-winner, a snapshot that was very similar to the one that chased Theodore in the first period. Backstrom’s strike sent the Verizon Center into pandemonium as hats rained down from even the “cheap” seats. It was the second consecutive playoff Game 2 in D.C. that resulted in two players recording hat tricks – just to add another twist to the night’s festivities.

Backstrom and Carlson were the heroes for sure, but Ovechkin, whose health and level of play had been questioned by so many, proved to be the leader his teammates had grown to lean on: “You could see his energy, his desire and his leadership were there tonight,” Boudreau said. “If we all watched the last game and today’s game, the difference was night and day. We need him to be like that all the time if we are going to succeed.”

Added Backstrom: “He’s such a big key to our team. He plays with a lot of emotion and a physical game that gives the team a lot of energy. When we see him go to the net and score goals and hit guys like that it gives the other guys on the team good energy and the other guys want to do it, too.”

Ovechkin and Knuble went to the net often during the Caps’ comeback, showing their teammates first hand what needed to be done to get under Halak’s skin and help Washington claw its way back into the series. The results were undeniable and helped the Caps dampen what should have been a very successful trip to D.C. for the Habs.

“We watched the video and Bruce told us that Halak leaves rebounds,” Ovechkin said. “We just had to go to the net and find some rebounds. We had to do something. I like to shoot the puck and they were playing so tight on me that I couldn’t find the time and space to shoot, so I decided to go to the net and find some rebounds. Today it worked for me. Tomorrow is a new game and a new day.”

No one knows what tomorrow will hold in this roller-coaster series, but one thing is certain. Washington’s leaders stepped to the forefront just in the “Nick” of time.

Once Again It's Time to Simplify

In scanning the blogosphere – at least the D.C. version – there are a lot of people saying that the Washington Capitals controlled play and dominated in the shot, hit and faceoff department in last night’s Game 1 NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinal overtime loss to Montreal. No need to panic is the battle cry. Washington was the better team. Once a game gets into overtime anything can happen, and the Habs capitalized on an opportunity. That’s playoff hockey.

A closer look, however, reveals that last night’s 3-2 Montreal victory was truly a tale of two games, and the lesson that the Caps need to learn can be found easily enough by watching the opening 20 minutes on tape and committing that to memory.

For those who chose to watch Buffalo’s Game 1 victory against Boston and tuned in to the Caps-Habs contest late, it would be understandable to think Washington dominated given the Caps’ 47-38 advantage in shots, the 37-24 margin in hits and the 45-27 advantage in the faceoff circle. Breaking it down, however, Montreal outshot Washington 31-28 after the first period and captured 15 of 29 faceoffs during the third period and overtime – obviously the crucial point of the game.

The first period, however, was a different story and really illustrates how the Caps can potentially dominate the rest of this series if they want to commit to that style of play. Washington came out flying, pushing the puck to the outside and using its speed and strength to get the puck in deep and create offensive chances. The Caps finished every check, generated plenty of shots and rebound opportunities and did a pretty good job crashing the net and creating traffic. Less than a minute into the game Jason Chimera blew past Marc-Andre Bergeron along the left wing boards and drew a penalty, allowing the league’s top power-play unit an opportunity to give Washington the upper hand. And Joe Corvo’s game-tying goal was a typical playoff-style marker, a well-placed floater thrown on net through traffic. Playoff hockey at its best.

For much of the period the Caps’ forwards seemed either too fast, too strong or both for the Habs’ defensive corps. It looked to be only a matter of time before Washington’s high-powered attack would heat up and give the Caps the lead. That’s when Jaroslav Halak stole the game. Certainly he was very strong throughout the evening, but he allowed the Canadiens to weather that storm and left Washington frustrated and somewhat drained heading into the second period.

On the bad side for the Caps in that opening 20 minutes was a silly penalty taken by Nick Backstrom that came with Washington holding a decided advantage in play and allowed Mike Cammalleri to net his first goal since January to give the Habs some hope. While Washington finished the season with the NHL’s top power play, connecting on better than 25 percent of its opportunities, the Canadiens are extremely dangerous with the man advantage as well, ranking No. 2 in the league and converting better than 21 percent of the time. The Caps are a decent penalty-killing team at home, but ranked near the bottom of the league overall, so staying out of the box is a key to their success.

And speaking of the power play, that was the other disappointing area for the Caps in the opening stanza. They went 0-for-2 in the first 20 minutes and finished the night 0-for-4, making them 1-for-15 with the extra man over their last five home contests.

It didn’t take long to see that the Caps were out of sync on the power play. Good shots were passed up. Long-range shots and low-percentage, pressured shots from the outside were attempted. Passes to players open for one-timers in scoring areas wound up in their skates or arrived bouncing or fluttering. Something wasn’t clicking. Perhaps they were too cute or trying to be too perfect and ended up trying to force things with the penalty clock winding down. No matter, the power play is something that has carried this team and must continue to do so. If the Caps aren’t scoring on the power play, Montreal’s potent extra-man attack combined with Washington’s less-than-stellar penalty killing suddenly tilt the balance slightly back in the Habs’ direction going forward.

“When you outshoot a team 19-7 in the first period, you know it’s not going to end up 57-21,” said Washington coach Bruce Boudreau. “I was a little worried after the first period. We had a 1-1 tie, but I think we outplayed them them pretty badly in the first, and usually when you do that and you don’t get a 3-0 or 3-1 lead, things can start to change. They are going to go into their dressing room and get hell from the coach or he’s going to say that now it’s our turn and at some point something’s going to happen to turn the game the other way. “

Once the second period started you could sense there was a change in approach from the Caps. Montreal continued to clog the ice in all three zones, and Washington started going for the home run – the long breakout pass and the stretch pass to the far blue line. Instead of the Caps using their speed advantage to the outside, getting the puck in deep, cycling, moving the puck and going to the net, they started playing a lot of east-west hockey with dipsy-dos at the blue line and fancy passes that led to countless offsides and more long-range, blockable shots. And for some reason, the Caps’ defense, which had been rock-solid in the first period, began to play hot potato with the puck, rushing and forcing passes and clears. They simply were not making the simple play.

When the Caps did get the puck in deep it seemed like one player – Mike Knuble, for instance – would go into the corner on his own and dig for the puck while his linemates kind of floated around in the slot area waiting for him to break free and make a pass. That instead of outnumbering the Canadiens in the corner and coming out with control to set up a situation where the Habs’ forwards would have to leave their assignment to help out in front of the net. Once you get the defense rotating and scrambling, the offense can originate from the point through either a clear shot to the goal or a fake shot that draws another defensive player out of position and leaves an offensive player open in even better scoring position.

All of that played right into the Canadiens’ hands. Montreal’s defensemen, Andrei Markov in particular, have no issue with giving up their bodies to protect the net. The Habs played back off of Washington’s forwards and pressured the pointmen, letting the forced shots from the blue line either carom off their bodies or scoot harmlessly past the net. Then, when Washington did get some open looks at the goal in the third period and overtime, the Caps rushed their shots and usually fired high or wide.

Ultimately, in overtime the Caps defensemen seemed extremely tentative moving the puck out of their own end and misread a couple of key loose-puck situations in neutral ice. One misread by Jeff Schultz led to a near-breakaway for Brian Gionta. The other by Shaone Morrisonn gave Tomas Plekanec the space he needed to fire a pinpoint bullet past Jose Theodore, whose outstanding 35-save performance was overshadowed by Halak’s brilliant 45-stop effort.

“We had a lot of shots on goal,” Boudreau said, “but I don’t think that we had a lot of great, quality chances. And when we did get quality chances we shot wide or didn’t get a shot off at all. We had a 2-on-1 late in the third and a 3-on-1 in overtime and didn’t get a shot of. I thought Halak played good, but he didn’t do anything we didn’t think he could do.”

So, let’s go back to the video. Working on the theory that positive reinforcement builds confidence this time of year, the Caps only need to watch the opening 20 minutes and lock in on the following: use speed to push the puck to the outside and then hammer the Canadiens’ physically in their own end, outnumber the Habs’ in the corners and then make the simple pass to move the puck quickly, immediately go to the net once the pass is made to the open man, take the open shot when it’s there and crash the net, limit the hot goaltender’s impact by getting pucks to the net and creating rebounds, make the easy and available pass in the defensive end and neutral zone and stay out of the box.

“I think we can play harder all the way around – from the top to the bottom – and that will reflect in the score, “ said Washington winger Mike Knuble, who led the first-period charge with six shots on goal. “I think maybe we need to bear down a little more around the net. This time of year you’re not pulling up trying to find people. If you get a little break, you get some speed and you get the puck to the net and somebody’s got to go in for the rebound.”

In other words, it’s time to simplify. The question is whether the Caps will get that message a game earlier than they did a year ago or will Red Nation be sent into panic mode yet again?

Caps - Canadiens Playoff Preview

Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
First Game – April 15, 2010
Verizon Center (Washington, DC)

Washington Probable Line Combinations

Forwards
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble
Laich-Fleischmann-Semin
Chimera-Belanger-Fehr
Bradley-Steckel-Gordon

The Fore-word:
Brendan Morrison has practiced as part of the first line this week, taking the ill Nick Backstrom’s spot on Tuesday and alternating with Mike Knuble on Wednesday. Knuble was picked up to provide a physical presence up front during the playoffs and to create space for Backstrom and Ovechkin. Clearly Knuble (29 goals) is a lock to play, so it appears as though Morrison, who tailed off considerably in offensive production during the season’s second half, will be a healthy scratch along with Scott Walker and Quintin Laing. The Caps, who play at a faster pace than possibly every NHL team, do so despite having a group of big, strong forwards. The above lineup features only one player shorter than 6-feet (Eric Belanger) and only two players who weigh less than 200 lbs. (Belanger, 187 and Tomas Fleischmann, 192).

Defensive Pairings
Schultz-Green
Morrisonn-Corvo
Poti-Carlson

Defense Department:
Washington’s defense features a rare combination of size, skill and mobility. D.C.’s blueliners average 6-3, 210 lbs., but head coach Bruce Boudreau has made sure in recent weeks to pair more mobile players such as Mike Green and Joe Corvo with more physical, stay-at-home types such as NHL plus-minus leader Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn. The third pairing of John Carlson and Tom Poti is a strong skating and puck-moving duo that also can be physical when needed. On most teams the big, swift-skating Carlson would be counted on to provide offense, but in his first year in Washington the U.S. World Junior Championships hero has assumed a more conservative, defensive role in the shadow of Green and Corvo. This has allowed him to adjust to the speed of the NHL game without feeling the pressure of having to do too much at both ends of the ice. Still, he has carried and moved the puck with more confidence in recent weeks and has created quite a bit of offense as the playoffs have approached.

Expect John Erskine and Tyler Sloan to open the series as healthy scratches, which shows just how far the Caps’ defense has come in a year. Erskine was one of the team’s most dependable d-men during last year’s playoffs and at times in the past has played as one of Washington’s top-four blueliners. If you look at statistics, overall skill, size and mobility, the Caps’ defense stacks up favorably against just about any defensive corps in the East. Where Washington has gotten into trouble in the past has been when the forwards have not committed to giving the effort at both ends of the ice required to go deep into the playoffs. The Caps have focused on this type of approach in recent weeks with encouraging results. They allowed three or fewer goals in their last six contests, going 5-0-1 and allowing just 13 total goals in that span.

Goaltending Depth Chart
Theodore
Varlamov

Jose Theodore has bounced back from an inconsistent 2009 and first half of 2010 to place a stranglehold on the starting job heading into the postseason. He is unbeaten in regulation in his last 23 starts (20-0-3) dating to Jan. 12, posting a 2.58 GAA and .922 save percentage during that span. Perhaps most impressive and supportive of the theory that he needs to make the key saves and not all the saves has been Theodore’s third-period performance during the streak. In those 23 contests he has allowed just nine goals on 229 shots. “Obviously the third period is always more important,” Theodore said. “Either your down a goal and don’t want to go down two goals or you’re up a goal and want to make a big save to keep it that way. I just try to focus on making the big save at key times, and a lot of times that can be the difference between a win and a loss. I’ve been pretty focused the second half of the season – really all year long – and I just hope I can keep doing the same thing.”

Last year Theodore was unceremoniously yanked in favor of Semyon Varlamov after a Game 1 quarterfinal loss to the Rangers, but Boudreau has said there will be no such quick hook this year. “I told Jose last week, Boudreau said. “He knows and he’s earned it. This is an entirely different situation from last year. He’s been our guy for a while, and his last loss was in early January. Obviously he could lose again, but last year during the last 10 games or so his game wasn’t anywhere near where it has been this year. There will be no short leash. He’s our guy.”

Added Theodore: “A lot of people counted me out when the season started for different reasons. It’s been a challenge for me to have a solid season since training camp and to have a chance to play in the playoffs. With the team we have, that’s where you want to be is in the playoffs, and now finally they are starting.”

As an aside, this season Theodore only appeared in one game against the team he previously won the Hart and Vezina trophies with, allowing four goals on 25 shots in relief of Michael Neuvirth. For his career Theodore is 2-1-1 with a 4.05 GAA and .877 save percentage vs. the Habs.

Montreal Lineup Notes
The Canadiens boast a small and quick batch of forwards led by the likes of Mike Cammalleri (5-9, 182), Brian Gionta (5-7, 173) and Tomas Plekanec (5-11, 198). Even Scott Gomez, who is solidly built, is by no means a giant at 5-11, 202. You might think that against a bigger team this could provide an advantage, but the Caps love the up-tempo game and have one of the league’s more mobile defensive units, so that should prove to be a wash in this series. If anything, Washington’s ability to match the Habs’ speed and wear them down with physical play from the likes of Ovechkin, Knuble, Jason Chimera and Matt Bradley – along with the defensemen – should provide the Caps with a big advantage.

Gomez always seems to play well against the Caps, and he recorded three assists in Montreal’s last two regular-season outings. Gionta scored a goal in each of the last three games, while defenseman Andrei Markov notched a goal and two assists in the Canadiens’ final contest vs. Toronto. Cammalleri has struggled since returning from a knee injury that he suffered in January. He managed just two assists in the team’s final nine games and has not scored a goal since January 23. Still, Cammalleri is another player who has fared well against the Caps in the past.

“They are quick and they are all proven,” Boudreau said of Montreal’s forwards. “When you are a small guy and one of the better players in the league, like Gionta or Cammalleri or Plekanec, you have to be special in terms of your drive and determination. It’s hard for small guys to make it in this league unless they are special. To do what they’ve done at this level they’ve had to be willing to pay the price and do the things that the bigger guys will do. I anticipate them to be at the top of their game.”

In goal, Carey Price played all four games against Washington this year, posting a 2-1-1 record and a 3.38 GAA. Jaroslav Halak, who did not play against the Caps, has allowed four goals in each of his last two starts. For the Canadiens, defenseman Paul Mara, who scored a big goal for the Rangers against Washington in last year’s playoffs, and power-play igniter Glenn Metropolit, a former Cap, are out with injuries.

One of the key matchups of the series will be Habs’ defenseman Markov against Ovechkin. Markov missed the first two contests against the Caps this year, but returned to play the final two games, helping hold Ovechkin to a total of two points in those outings. In the Feb. 10 game, a 6-5 Canadiens’ overtime victory, Markov logged more than 30 minutes of ice time, frequently matching up against Ovechkin, who played more than 29 minutes that night.

The Breakdown
Montreal has the type of team that can give the Caps fits on a given night. They are a quick, pesky team that can really press an opponent on the forecheck and capitalize quickly on mistakes. Montreal also has a solid, veteran defensive unit that is not prone to making a lot of mistakes. The issue here is whether the Canadiens can hold up in a long series against a bigger, more physical Washington team that is just as fast, more potent offensively and more skilled. When you look at it that way, the prospects don’t look encouraging for the Habs. The two real keys to the series are the willingness of the Caps’ forwards to commit to playing hard at both ends and the play of Halak. If Halak is able to play at a world-class level for the length of the series, Montreal has a chance to pull off the upset. But, even if Halak is at the top of his game and Washington is solid at both ends, the Caps just have too much firepower for the Canadiens to compete.

Season Series
Each team went 2-1-1 in this year’s series, with Montreal snapping the Caps’ 14-game winning streak in that 6-5 OT victory Feb. 10 and also winning in regulation Nov. 10. Washington won in a shootout Nov. 28 and earned a win in regulation Jan. 5. Said Boudreau: “Quite frankly they should have beaten us three out of four this year. It looks better because there are two games where we pulled the goalie and scored late to force overtime. It could have easily been 3-1 or 4-0 in their favor, so I’m sure that they have loads of confidence against us.”

Even Steven
Washington is the best 5-on-5 team in the league, having recorded 213 goals, while the Habs were the worst full-strength squad with 132 tallies. Again, if the Caps forwards maintain their defensive integrity, Montreal has no chance. Overall, Washington led the NHL in goals-per-game at 3.82, with the Habs ranking 26th at 2.56.

Special Teams
With the Caps leading the league in power-play percentage at 25.2 percent and the Canadiens ranking second at 21.8 percent, on the surface special teams play looks to be a a wash. Not so fast, though. The Caps draw a lot more penalties, primarily because of their speed, size and skill. They received 52 more man advantages than the Habs did. However, Washington has struggled for stretches on the penalty kill this season, ranking among the top 10 at home for most of the year, but among the bottom 10 away from Verizon Center. So the team that is more disciplined and stays out of the penalty box should be able to benefit substantially.

Intangibles
Washington has been nearly unbeatable on home ice the second half of the season, so potentially getting four games at Verizon Center is a big advantage. The Caps also have learned from slow starts in their last three playoff series and seem to be primed to avoid that this time around. Several of the Caps’ healthy scratches would fit nicely into the Habs’ lineup, so there is a decided overall depth advantage if the series goes beyond five games and injuries become a factor.

On the other hand, Montreal has nothing to lose as an eighth seed and can draw from its 2002 upset of top-seeded Boston as inspiration. The Canadiens also have a much richer postseason history than the Caps, but most of that was forged a long time ago – and the Habs have a richer playoff history than everyone else in the NHL. If they can steal a win early in D.C., the Canadiens will return home to a jacked-up fanbase that may be able to push them far enough beyond their perceived limits to make this a series.

Prediction
Washington wins in six. Halak will play well enough to help Montreal steal a couple of wins, but the constant offensive barrage from the Caps will ultimately wear him down. Washington will continue its recent commitment to defense and limit the Habs’ scoring opportunities, which paired with the Caps’ firepower will render Halk helpless no matter how well he plays. If Washington gets off to a fast start and Halak’s confidence waivers, this could be a massacre.